@Article{SilvaMellChou:2022:CaStSo,
               author = "Silva, Vinicius Oliveira and Mello, Carlos Rog{\'e}rio and Chou, 
                         Sin Chan",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Projections of severe droughts in future climate in Southeast 
                         Brazil: a case study in Southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil",
              journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "148",
               number = "3/4",
                pages = "1289--1302",
                month = "May",
             keywords = "Regional climate change, Meteorological drought projection, 
                         Regional climate models, Climate change impacts.",
             abstract = "South of Minas Gerais state, in Southeast Brazil, is known for the 
                         coffee crop production (more than 30% of country's production) and 
                         hydroelectricity generation (1216 MW installed power). Droughts 
                         are natural climate phenomena that may strongly affect a region 
                         during a certain period. In this study, the severity of the 
                         droughts that hit southern Minas Gerais state was analyzed in the 
                         period from 1970 to 2020 and was projected up to 2098/2099 using 
                         four global circulation models (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, BESM, 
                         CanESM2), downscaled by Eta model to 20-km resolution, under two 
                         Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To 
                         access the severity of the droughts, the Standard Precipitation 
                         Index considering the hydrological year (SPI12) was investigated 
                         over time and space. The results demonstrated that the 2013-2014 
                         hydrological year was the dryest in southern Minas Gerais, 
                         followed by 2014/2015, which led to water shortage, reduction of 
                         the hydroelectricity and reduction of coffee crop production. 
                         Future projections indicate that extreme droughts will continue 
                         occurring, but with similar rarity. However, the RCM downscaling 
                         pointed out the possible occurrence of several dry consecutive 
                         years, which can collapse the hydrology and put at risk the 
                         economy of the region. Except from the Eta-MIROC under RCP 8.5, 
                         that simulated most of the droughts in middle to the end of XXI 
                         century, the other RCMs projected recurrent droughts for the next 
                         two decades, supporting the detection drought anomalies and 
                         helping in adoption actions to anticipate and mitigate drought 
                         effects in the future.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00704-022-03993-x",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03993-x",
                 issn = "0177-798X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Silva2022_Article_ProjectionsOfSevereDroughtsInF.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "17 maio 2024"
}